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\documentclass{standalone}
\usepackage{luamplib}
\usepackage{unicode-math}
\setmainfont[Numbers=OldStyle]{TeX Gyre Pagella}
\setmathfont{TeX Gyre Pagella Math}
\begin{document}
\mplibtextextlabel{enable}
\begin{mplibcode}
beginfig(1);
path data, p;
data = (1967, 311)
-- (1968, 332)
-- (1969, 372)
-- (1970, 385)
-- (1971, 385)
-- (1972, 393)
-- (1973, 387)
-- (1974, 381)
-- (1975, 387)
-- (1976, 400)
-- (1977, 380);
numeric u, v;
u = xpart urcorner textext("1980\kern 0.75em");
v = 1.414;
p = data shifted -(xpart point 0 of data, 300) xscaled u yscaled v;
draw p;
for d = 300 step 20 until 400:
numeric y; y = (d - 300) * v;
label.lft("\strut\scriptsize\$\,\small" & decimal d, (-12, y));
draw (-8, y) -- (-12, y);
if d > 370:
draw (xpart point 3 of p, y) -- (xpart point infinity of p + 8, y)
dashed evenly scaled 1/4 withpen pencircle scaled 1/4;
fi
endfor
path a; a = (xpart point infinity of p + 21, (380 - 300) * v)
-- (xpart point infinity of p + 21, (400 - 300) * v);
interim ahangle := 180;
interim ahlength := 2;
drawdblarrow a withpen pencircle scaled 1/4;
label("\small 5\%", point 1/2 of a shifted 12 right);
for t=0 upto length p:
numeric x, y; (x, y) = point t of p;
undraw (x, y) withpen pencircle scaled 2 dotlabeldiam;
draw (x, y) withpen pencircle scaled dotlabeldiam;
draw (x, -8) -- (x, -12);
label("\strut\small" & decimal xpart point t of data, (x, -20));
endfor
label.urt(btex \vbox{\halign{\small #\hfill\cr
Per capita\cr budget expenditure\cr in constant dollars\cr}} etex,
(0, (410 - 300) * v));
picture p; p = currentpicture; currentpicture := nullpicture;
bboxmargin := 12;
fill bbox p withcolor 1/32(32, 32, 31);
draw p;
endfig;
\end{mplibcode}
\end{document}
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